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Sunday, 1 June 2008

Will it burst or can we deflate it?
by Jerry Gordon


"I can calculate the motions of the heavenly bodies,
but not the madness of people"
          ---Sir Isaac Newton, comment on the South Seas Bubble of 1720

Many Americans this Memorial Day experienced sticker shock on steroids at the gas pump. It now costs $4.00 a gallon for regular unleaded gas in many areas of the country. Here in Florida’s Panhandle, even with our economical four cylinder family car, it now costs $60.00 to fill up our gas tank weekly. By contrast in January, 2007, with an average price of $2.21 a gallon, according to the Energy Information Administration, it cost $33.15 a tank full. This is almost a doubling of gasoline costs in 18 months.  The price of the US crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) more than doubled over the period from May 1, 2007 to May 23, 2008: $60.00 versus $132.19.  more...

Posted on 06/01/2008 7:26 AM by NER
Comments
1 Jun 2008
Alan

UK Petrol and Diesel Prices for
Thursday 29th May 2008 (per litre)£

  Avg. Min. Max.
Unleaded: 115.8p 110.9p 126.9p
Diesel: 129.3p 121.9p 140.9p
       
       
       





1 Jun 2008
John M. J.

$4.00 per gallon. Lucky people! Here in the Highlands of Scotland I'm paying almost $11.00 per gallon and believe me, I'm feeling it.

However, enough of that. Thank-you, Jerry,  for a lucid account of what's really going on. Your's is the first article which I have read on this subject which I could understand and which, furthermore, explained the mechanisms by which crude is traded. Most informative.



3 Jun 2008
Steven
Good, well thought out article.  I did a post on my blog a few weeks ago in ThoughtsbySteve and came up with a similar solution.  By making oil futures, swaps, etc. non-marginable, ie raising margins to 100%, the CFTC could wipe out the speculative aspect of the oil bubble.  I liken the situation to the way the Hunts were annihilated when they tried to corner silver in the 1970's.  As for the unregulated markets, they need to be put under CFTC jurisdiction so they can also be affected.

2 Jul 2008
Send an emailEric

I am gratified to read others are also alarmed by the impact of investor activity on commodity prices, including oil. Over one year ago I posted three articles on my blog (theworldlyphilosopher.com) alerting readers to a bubble in the oil markets.  The same indicators which alarmed me at that time continue to to keep me up at night.  One, no rational commercial (viz., oil company) player in the energy markets will add to invetories simply because of the potential for lose.  Two, the disparity between coal and oil prices on a BTU adjusted basis (even after accounting for higher transport, environmental remediation, etc. costs associated with coal) suggest the oil markets are way over priced.  And, finally, there is the ratio of the open interest to the private physical inventories of oil held in the U.S..  Total contract volume is a multiple of the oil on hand.

All points suggest the CFTC has been remiss at its job.  The most favorable excuse for its inaction is a misguided belief that the energy futures markets are like the cash settled financial futures markets.  They are not.  The energy commodity markets historically have served as a bring between producers and consumers to facilitate price discovery.  They were never intended as a means for long only investors to build up sizeable exposure to oil.  Facilitating hording goes aganist the best interests of producers and consumers.



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