Thursday, 6 December 2012
Washington, DC (December 6, 2012) – A new analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by the Center for Immigration Studies projects the impact of immigration on the size and composition of the U.S. population. The findings reveal that immigration makes for a much larger overall population, while having only a minimal effect on slowing the aging of American society.
Steven Camarota, the Center’s Director of Research, notes, “there is simply no question immigration makes for a much larger and more densely settled country, but it is not a cure for an aging society.”
The complete study can be found at: http://cis.org/projecting-immigrations-impact-on-the-size-and-age-structure-of-the-21st-century-american-population.
Among the findings:
While immigration is the primary driver of population growth, even without immigration, the population will increase by 31 million by 2050. The long term trend in immigration has been a steady increase, and this seems likely to continue once the U.S. economy recovers. But, even if immigration is half of what the Census Bureau expected in the 2008 projections, the U.S. population will still grow by 79 million by 2050, with immigration accounting for 61 percent of population growth.
The fundamental question for the American public and policy makers is whether a much larger population and the resulting greater population density will add to or diminish the quality of life in the United States. Immigration is a discretionary policy of the government and can be changed. These projections show us one possible future. We must decide as a country if this is the future we want.
The report contains a detailed explanation of the study’s methodology. In sum, the Center for Immigration and Decision Demographics of Arlington, Virginia developed the projections model used in this analysis. We first replicated the official 2008 Census Bureau projections, their last full set of projections, by race/ethnicity. This was possible because the Census Bureau Projections Branch was kind enough to share unpublished data that it used to generate its last major series of projections. In total, the Bureau’s net immigration projection is 68.3 million for the period 2010 to 2050. We vary this base level of immigration to discern its’ impact on population size and composition. These projections follow the Census Bureau’s assumptions about future levels of immigration and death and birth rates, including a decline in the birth rate for Hispanics.
Posted on 12/06/2012 8:00 AM by Rebecca Bynum
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