1330AMWEBY,  talk radio station in Milton, Florida, whose listener area encompasses four Gulf Coast States, held the fourth in a series of Middle East round table discussions.  The “Your Turn” program was co- hosted by Mike Bates, WEBY general manager and Jerry Gordon, contributing editor of the New English Review.  You may listen to a recording of the “Your Turn” program at the Jewish Policy Center (JPC) website, here.  The issues discussed by the panel addressed:

• ·         Unfolding events in Iran following their  tumultuous Presidential election;
• ·         Israel officialdom and Washington reactions to the events in Tehran;
• ·         Israeli PM Netanyahu’s response to President Obama’s Cairo U. Speech ;
• ·         The truth about the “Settlements” Issue;
• ·         The Status of  Amb. Dennis Ross as Obama’s Middle East  Special Envoy;
• ·         Obama’s  vision out of synch with Netanyahu’s ; and,
• ·         The folly of US training Palestinian security forces in the West Bank.

The WEBY “Your Turn” panel included:

•  Ken Timmerman, Washington, DC-based, contributing editor at NewsMax.com, executive director of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran, noted journalist and author of several non- fiction books, “Shadow Warriors”, ”Countdown to Crisis: the coming Nuclear Showdown with Iran” and a counter-terrorism ‘thriller’ about Iran inserting a nuclear bomb into our Nation’s Capitol, “Honor Killing.”
• Jonathan Schanzer, Washington, DC-based deputy executive director of the Jewish Policy Center (JPC) editor of their Palestine Rocket Report and author of “Hamas vs. Fatah: The Struggle For Palestine” (Palgrave-MacMillan).
• Daniel Diker, Director of the Institute for Contemporary Affairs and Senior Foreign Policy Analyst at the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs. He also serves as Middle East Affairs Commentator for Channel One News in Israel and is the author of numerous white papers on Middle East Affairs and Israeli security.

Unfolding events in Iran 

Ken Timmerman noted the continuing mass demonstrations in Tehran , Tabriz, Shiraz and other major Iranian cities following Friday’s fractious Presidential election.  He drew attention to the crackdown, eight murders of protesters  that involved  non –Iranians brought in by Ahmadinejad  that included  Hezbollah and Hamas thugs.  This could become a revolution and it is a serious challenge to both Supreme Leader Khamenei  and President Ahmadinejad by former President Ayatollah Rafsanjani.  Ahmadinejad, he noted is in ‘total harmony’ with Supreme Leader Khamenei and controls the revolutionary Guards and Intelligence echelons.  Timmerman in his capacity as executive director of the Foundation for Democracy in Iran sent a letter to President Obama advising not to repeat the same mistake that President Clinton did in the midst of the 1999 Student revolt in Iran. Clinton, he noted said that the “U.S. would do nothing”.  Timmerman said that  Obama  “should hold up a beacon of liberty instead of a shroud” to Iran protesters and abandon “dancing with the dictator”.

Israel officialdom and Washington reactions to the events in Tehran

Schanzer in commenting on Washington  views of these unfolding events said that analysts there saw ‘bleak prospects”.  He noted Obama’s reference to the 1950’s meddling by the US in the overthrow of Iranian nationalist  PM Mohammed Mossedegh.   Obama should instead be encouraging a revolution that is spontaneous and not seen since 1979.  Iranians, Schanzer said, were looking towards the West for guidance and support, instead Obama is evincing ambivalence.  Timmerman responded that Iranians want to end the Islamic form of government that replaced a secular dictatorship under the last Shah. Diker thought that what was going on in Tehran was a revolution for freedom.  Schanzer responded by saying it was an attempt to topple theocracy.

When queried about  a possible Israeli military option in support of an overthrow in Iran, Diker noted that Israel was acutely aware of the necessity of supporting democratic institution building in Iran. As regards  official Israeli sentiments in the face of the turmoil in Iran, Diker had these ironic observations.  Generally, the Israeli government was ‘pleased’ with the outcome of the Presidential elections as they prefer Ahmadinejad rather than Mousavi  who  might make the nuclear project part of a hidden agenda.  Netanyahu, according to Diker doesn’t want to detract from his lead project, containing and isolating a nuclear Iran.  He noted the head of Mossad advised the government that Iran would have a working nuclear bomb  in 45 to 60 months.

Israeli PM Netanyahu’s response to President Obama’s Cairo U. Speech 

When queried about Israeli PM Netanyahu’s speech at Bar-Ilan University this past Sunday, Diker noted the big spurt in polling numbers for Netanyahu.   Diker said that Netanyahu touched a deep chord among Israelis . He noted that Ha’aretz reported that Netanyahu’s  popularity rose from 28% prior to his speech to over 44 % following it. Diker pointed out that poll included Israeli Arabs and doubtless if those responses were dropped the ratings among Jewish Israelis would be far higher.  Diker pointed out the strengths in Netanyahu’s address: his appeal to a national consensus; his stress on defensible borders, an undivided Jerusalem and an appeal  using rights based diplomacy.   He noted that there was great concern among Israelis about Obama’s Cairo speech due to the President’s muscular outreach  to Islam at Israel’s expense.  Obama in Diker’s view engaged in creating a false moral equivalence putting the ‘settlements issue’ on the same level as Ahmadinejad’s nuclear threat.  Israel is the most ancient of members in the Middle East neighborhood having been there for over 3,500 years.  Diker indicated that most Israeli were appalled by Obama’s   use of the American slavery analogy as an affront to Afro Americans who achieved their civil rights through non-violent actions and not the violence perpetrated by the Palestinians.  Obama, according to Diker positioned Israel to be as illegitimate as Slavery.

Schanzer thought that Obama’s  Cairo speech did a lot of damage. Obama stressed mutual respect. Schanzer found that obsequious and fawning towards  Muslims. Obama, in his view did not stress the necessity of the Muslim World  confronting radical Islam.  According to Schanzer,  the Obama speech possibly set back US policy towards  Israel  by eight years,.

The  “Settlements” Issue

Schanzer noted that Israel captured the West Bank and Gaza in 1967 to safeguard its citizens from attack. Settlements in disputed territories  were temporary in nature.  He  illustrated  this by noting Israeli abandonment of  settlements in the Sinai as a result of the peace treaty with Egypt and the unilateral withdrawal from the Gush Katif settlements in Gaza.  He contends that the focus on settlements by the Obama administration as a  major  issue  in the Middle East disregards the Iran nuclear  threat and the looming prospect of a possible nuclear war.  Netanyahu addressed those concerns in his Bar-Ilan speech.  Schanzer noted a clear rift in the US Israel relationship appeared in the wake of the speeches by  President Obama  and  PM Netanyahu. 

Status of Special Envoy Amb. Dennis Ross

Schanzer, a former associate of Amb. Dennis Ross, a current Obama Middle East Special Envoy had these comments concerning  Ross’s alleged  ‘sacking’  as  reported  by Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz.  The rationale currently in vogue in Washington, was that Amb. Ross was leaving the role of Special Envoy to work in the White House. It was alleged  that  Ross’s promotion  would provide him better access to Obama.  Schanzer’s view is  that  it represents a capitulation to those NSC interests  supporting outreach to Iran.

Obama’s Vision  out of synch with  Netanyahu’s

When asked by “Your Turn” host, Mike Bates,  whether Obama’s vision of the Middle East was out of synch with Israeli PM Netanyahu’s , Diker had these comments. He felt that the rhetoric between the two speeches had enabled Netanyahu and Obama to narrow their differences.  What Netanyahu means by a demilitarized state should not be lost when you look at history.  Diker contended that Obama refuses to understand what the late Israeli PM  Rabin in the Oslo process was uniquely concerned about, the various dimensions of complete security and defensible borders  for the Jewish state.   In the words of  the late Israeli Foreign Minister Abba  Eban,  Israel should not return to the pre-1967 War so-called “Auschwitz borders,” and  that Israel needed defensible borders.  The West Bank, encompassing Samaria and Judea, is less than 9 to 12 miles wide.  92 to 94 % of the West Bank is virtually unpopulated public lands and Palestinian towns and settlements account for  less than 3 to 4% of the disputed area.

Diker believes that Obama has zero tolerance on settlements and wants all of them dismantled. The reality, as Diker noted , is that most of the municipalities  with an estimated Israeli  population of over 350,000 ‘hug’ the so-called green line.  Obama’s conditions for restricting so-called natural growth of these municipalities are an absurdity.

The folly of US training  Palestinian security forces in the West Bank.

Schanzer was asked why the US was intent on training Palestinian security battalions for the West Bank territories. Much of the training is going on in Jordan with US assistance.  He noted the inclusion of funding in U.S.  Military supplementary appropriations pending before Congress.  The current head of US Palestinian security training program, Lt. Gen. Keith Dayton,  is reflective of U.S. military  zeal  in creating a Palestinian security force. Dayton, according to Schanzer,  considers his  mission as training Palestinian patriots. US efforts at building such a Palestinian security force, Schanzer noted,  began in the Bush Administration in the wake of the Hamas overthrow of Fatah in June of 2007. He indicated the intent was to bolster Fatah as an alternative to Hamas on the West Bank.  Schanzer referred to what happened in the 1990’s when following the Oslo Accords, the late  Israeli Rabin turned over weapons and provided training to  a Palestinian Army, only to have the guns turned on Israel in the 2000 Intifada ordered by the late Yasir Arafat.  Schanzer considers the US security training effort an ill-advised move. The US could be training and equipping possible defectors who might join extremist militias, whether Fatah’s Al Aksa Brigade or Hamas.  Netanyahu’s stress on a demilitarized state recognizes this possible folly.