Rebellion Against the Arab Spring Inflames the Middle East

by Jerry Gordon and Mike Bates (August 2013)

 Andrew Pochter, killed as a bystander at an Alexandria demonstration outside a local Muslim Brotherhood office. Secretaries Kerry and Hagel expressed concern over the Egyptian Military’s inability to rein in the violence stressing the necessity of including all groups, a reference to the Muslim Brotherhood, in a new government. The US Department of Defense has put a temporary hold on delivery of four F-16s to Egypt under the provisions of the 1979 Camp David Accords. What Jonathan Schanzer of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies called a “coup-volution” may have been in the planning stages for some time. The timing of Morsi’s ouster may have been triggered by the massive street demonstrations of opposition forces versus Muslim Brotherhood supporters of now ousted President Morsi. He and other former officials of the Muslim Brotherhood are now charged by the interim government with sedition.

jailbreak organized by the Muslim Brotherhood with the aid of Hamas and the Hezbollah in Egypt freed hundreds, including Morsi, in January 2011. That became the springboard for the electoral campaign that brought Morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood to power in June 2012. 

offered $8 billion in funding that may temporarily stabilize the Egypt economy and stop the free fall of its currency. The interim government appointed by Gen. al-Sisi is led by President Adli Mansour, head of the  Supreme Constitutional High Court, Prime Minister Hazem el-Beblawi, a liberal economist and former  Finance Minister, and Nobel Laureate and Vice President  for Foreign Relations, former UN International Atomic inspection agency head, Mohamed ElBaradei. They are charged with holding early elections and writing a replacement constitution. It is to replace one jammed through by Morsi in November 2012 with the aid of a Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist dominated constitutional assembly that deprived women and Coptic Christians of civil rights in accordance with Islamic Sharia law. Whether holding early elections would result in a stable government given large Muslim Brotherhood and Salafist voting blocs is a nagging question. The Muslim Brotherhood may go underground as it has in the past but will remain a significant threat.

significant military operation in the northern and central Sinai to combat 50 terrorist compounds supplied with weapons from Hamas. Hamas is an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood. It has become estranged from Iran given its withdrawal from Damascus and declaration of support for Muslim Brotherhood opposition forces in the Syrian civil war. In late June 2013, Grad rockets were found in Rafah on the border with Hamas-controlled Gaza along with more than 1000 tunnels. It will be a daunting effort for the Egyptian military to finally choke off this pipeline for the Gaza cash economy and weapons supplies to the Muslim Brotherhood affiliate. Israel has given a waiver under the 1982 Disengagement for Egypt to conduct operations in the ungovernable Sinai Peninsula.

assassination of leftist opposition leader Mohammed Brahmi brought massive demonstrations against the supposedly “moderate” Islamist Ennahda government. It has failed to address economic issues and combat Muslim extremists.  Libya is the latest example of another Arab country spinning out of control in the wake of the overthrow with NATO assistance of long term dictator Muammar Gaddafi.  A jail break of 1,200 detainees from a prison near Benghazi occurred in the aftermath of a drive-by shooting of Abdul-Salam Al-Musmar. He was a critic of the Muslim Brotherhood. His assassination triggered massive street protests with calls of “We don't want the Brotherhood, we want the army and the police!”

undertaken periodic raids into Syria to destroy anti-aircraft missile defense systems and other non-conventional weapons that may have been in the process of transfer to Hezbollah in Lebanon. It has conducted five such raids to date, including one that interdicted a warehouse of game changing Russian supplied Yakhont anti-ship missiles in the port of Latakia.

persists in requests to the Obama Administration about clarifying military options on nuclear Iran given evidence that Iran may have crossed nuclear enrichment red lines that he had discussed at the UN General Assembly in September 2012.  This despite Rouhani revealing his cards about his long term support for accelerating nuclear weapons development nearing realization in 2014.  Rouhani was a long term secretary of the Supreme National Security Council as well as was chief nuclear negotiator under President Khatami in 2005 to 2006.

approved the prisoner release thus facilitating a meeting in Washington on July 30, 2013. A vote by the Netanyahu cabinet on July 28, 2013 requires a national referendum before any final status peace agreement can be ratified. Further, polls in Israel indicated that three fifths of respondents rejected a peace agreement with the Palestinians. Skepticism abounds that any peace agreement can be achieved. The question arises as to what would bring these contentious parties together in another peace process given a region virtually in flames.

Against this background, we held one of our periodic Middle East Round Table discussions.

Mike Bates:  Good afternoon and welcome to this special edition of Your Turn. We periodically do these international roundtable discussions about what is happening in the Middle East and we are doing that today and with me in the studio is Jerry Gordon, Senior Editor of the New English Review and its blog, The Iconoclast. Welcome Jerry.

 

 

Jerry Gordon:  Good to be here.

 

www.newenglishreview.org. Joining us from Washington D.C. is Jonathan Schanzer, V.P. of Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Jonathan, welcome.

 

 

 

Jonathan Schanzer:  Thank you very much.

 

 

www.defenddemocracy.org. Also joining us from Washington D.C. is Shoshana Bryen, Senior Director of the Jewish Policy Center. Welcome Shoshana.

 

 

 

 

Shoshana Bryen:  Nice to be here.

www.jewishpolicycenter.org. Shoshana let me ask you the first question. A very open-ended question about the on again, off again, on again revolution in Egypt. According to the Wall Street Journal the coup by Egyptian military leader General al-Sisi on the third of July ousted the former President Morsi and detained leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood. It was allegedly accomplished with support of Mubarak allies and other assorted opposition. What are your views on this Egyptian re-revolution?

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