The Long Game in Persia
by G. Murphy Donovan (May 2026)
Tehran is playing a long game, betting that domestic U.S. political angst will neuter American popular resolve. The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026 with control of the US Congress in the balance.
Tehran’s best allies in the long run might be time, EU Quislings, the Global Left—and the Democrat Party at home in America.
Iran’s strategy appears determined to expand costs, drag out disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with hopes to fuel higher oil prices and global shipping chaos. Prolonged military engagement by those American flotillas is obviously thought to erode voter support for Republicans ahead of the pending November vote.
Short of a deus ex machina or a bigger bomb, the outcome of the US war with Iran may be determined by toxic domestic politics, flaccid EU “allies,” and global attention spans aggravated by a near universal hostile legacy press.
The latest attempt on the American President’s life and all those “I told you sos” by America’s legacy press are proofs positive that Team Trump has few or no home team advantages at home or abroad.
Making matters worse; Iran, like Hamas and Hezbollah, now identify as victims after marinating in 50 years of European and American suicidal empathy. Indeed, it was our NATO allies, France in particular, that enabled the return of those 16th Century Islamic ayatollahs who transformed a nation, indeed Persian culture, into a near-nuclear, toxic, totalitarian theocracy.
Death to America, indeed.
Concurrently, the European Union, like the old Comintern, is starting to look like another failed utopian pipe dream. With allies like the UK, the Commonwealth, and the EU; who needs enemies?
Iran today is also proof positive that history is a two way street. Human progress, like virtue, is always a matter of perspective.
Religious recidivism, like the cockroach and the rodent in New York, is always waiting to fill the void when civic courage and national common sense fail.
So, what now?
Surely, there are some optimists out there, the best of whom are represented by Victor David Hanson at Hoover who say “signals are all pointing in the same direction” to describe the imminent collapse of the Iranian regime under some sort of “Venezuela” model. Maybe.
Hanson claims that multiple data points, including declining missile production, leadership turnover, and the neutralization of Iran’s ability to wage war -indicate that the regime is on “borrowed time.” Maybe.
Hanson also argues that key signals (strategic, economic, political, and domestic) signify that the Tehran “paper tiger” is exposed and US/Iran/Israeli conflict will conclude in a victory for American and Israeli strategic interests. Maybe.
There’s little to fault Hanson’s analysis except all futures are plagued by uncertainty. Realistically, America and Israel stand alone, for the most part, against the Islamic Right and the Euro/American left, now the most potent threat coalition here and abroad.
How all of this unfolds is still a toss up.
America is still poised to go for the kill. Alas, the real question is, for the past 50 years and still at this moment, do we have the will and courage to do what clearly must be done?
This much is certain. Time is Mohamed’s ally.
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G. Murphy Donovan writes about the politics of US Intelligence and American national security.. Follow him on X.