Appeasement in Geneva?
by Jerry Gordon and Mike Bates (December 2013)
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The topsy turvey developments in the Middle East made for high drama on the international and regional stage in the waning months of 2013.
upended discussions in Geneva calling the interim deal by the P5+1 with a Iranian delegation a “fool’s game.” That was followed by a state visit from French President Francois Hollande and Foreign Minister Fabius to Jerusalem where they were received warmly by Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. Hollande spoke before the Knesset saying in effect he had the Jewish nation’s concerns at heart in the P5+1 deliberations with Iran in Geneva. While at the same time suggesting that Israel should make gestures to accommodate the Palestinian Authority (PA) on construction in the disputed territories on the West Bank and possibly sharing its capital, Jerusalem. Some members of the Knesset and Netanyahu's coalition cabinet were none too pleased about the latter. Israelis were also none too pleased with visiting Secretary of State Kerry who in the midst of Geneva deliberations warned Israel about the possible outbreak of violence in the form of a Third Intifada during a combined Palestinian and Israeli TV interview. Discussions towards a possible final status agreement between the PA and Israel have been facilitated by Kerry. They appear to be faltering, giving rise to the possibility that the PA might choose to declare statehood via the UN should the parties fail to reach a final status agreement. Earlier in November 2013, a forensic report by Swiss scientists of the effects of the late PA leader Yassir Arafat found traces of polonium. His widow Suha raised murky questions about his possible poisoning as a cause of his death in 2004 at the age of 75.
report:
For the full text of the P5+1 Iran interim agreement, see here.
dispatched his national security adviser to Washington to confer with Administration national security advisers seeking to pursue dismantling of Iran’s nuclear program in any permanent agreement. Leading Democratic Senators, Charles Schumer of New York and Robert Menendez of New Jersey, proclaimed their disappointment in the P5+1 agreement and pushed for adoption of stronger sanctions to be considered in early December 2013. This despite White House pleas that doing so could jeopardize further negotiations with Iran.
op ed calling it a “bad agreement likely to get worse.” They drew attention to the absence of provisions addressing critical development of nuclear warheads, triggers and ballistic missiles. They calculated the estimated amount of sanctions relief in excess of $20 billion, boosting Iran’s hard currency reserves by more than $100 billion. President Rouhani was pleased by the agreement that enabled Iran to continue enrichment at the 3.0 percent level. Further, the Islamic Regime announced that $8 billion in previously frozen assets had been released after the P5+1 interim agreement was signed in Geneva raising questions about Administration’s relief estimates.
Fox News report echoed this concern when he said:
Watch the WSJ interview with FDD President May:
suggested in comments that Morsi and the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood may have “stolen” the Egyptian revolution. Gen. Al-Sisi and the interim Egyptian government received the Russian Foreign and Defense Ministers who offered $2 billion in helicopters and air defense systems, amidst speculation about who was going to pay for them. At present, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf emirates have provided $14 billion in credits for the interim Egyptian government grappling with trying to reignite investment for a struggling economy and to feed its people. Then in an abrupt move in late November 2013, the Egyptian Foreign Minister declared the Turkish Ambassador persona non grata reducing the status of diplomatic relations between the two former allies. That move was in reaction to continuing criticism of the ouster of former President Morsi by Turkey’s Islamist Premier Erdogan an acknowledged supporter of the Muslim Brotherhood in both Egypt and Syria.
offered to assist in the effort to destroy the chemical weapons. More than 1,400 deaths and casualties in the Damascus suburbs in August 2013 caused by chemical agents like Sarin gas released by rockets and artillery shells had originally prompted President Obama to issue US military attack warnings. That was stifled by Russian intervention with UN backing and Assad regime acquiescence to destroy the WMD stockpiles. This came amidst developments in northeastern Syria where Kurdish militia forces appear to have ousted al Qaeda affiliates, the al Nusrah Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) from its homeland. Meanwhile, in other combat areas in Syria Islamist militias have merged to contend with al Qaeda affiliates. All while facing Assad regime troops, supported by Iranian Qods Force and Hezbollah forces that appear to be gaining control of critical lines of communication. Those continuing battles have spawned the flight of Sunni and Christian refugees to nearby Lebanon. An alleged twin bombing by Al Qaeda operatives near the Iranian Embassy in South Beirut controlled by Hezbollah was seen as retaliation for Iranian Qods Force and Hezbollah units fighting alongside Assad military inside Syria. On November 25, 2013, UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon announced the possible start of long-sought peace discussions between the Syrian opposition and the Assad regime would take place in Geneva on January 22, 2014. He characterized it in his statement as “a mission of hope” to end the civil war and agree to a transitional government “with full executive powers.” However, the Syrian opposition immediately suggested that two key provisions, release of prisoner and removal of the Assad government, had not been met.
Against this background, we held one of our periodic 1330amWEBY Middle East Round Tables with panelists, Dr. Jonathan Schanzer, V.P. for Research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Shoshana Bryen of The Jewish Policy Center, both based in Washington, DC.
www.newenglishreview.org. Jerry, welcome.
Jerry Gordon: Glad to be here Mike.
Jonathan Schanzer: Thanks so much.
www.jewishpolicycenter.org. Shoshana, welcome.
Segment 1, Segment 2, Segment 3, Segment 4.
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