Is the Muslim Brotherhood on the March in Egypt?

by Jerry Gordon and Mike Bates (February 2011)

While Mubarak has announced that he would not run in a proposed September election, the Egyptian street continues to demand his immediate resignation as President. Heavy gun fire erupted on Thursday morning, February 3rd in Tahrir Square with several protesters killed and a number of injuries, raising questions of whether the Mubarak government has decided to brutally end the roiling opposition demonstrations.

Mike Bates:  Good afternoon, welcome to Your Turn. This is Mike Bates. What is happening in Egypt? What’s happening in Jordan? How does it affect Israel and what is going on in the Middle East? We’re going to have our round table discussion with Jerry Gordon here in Pensacola, Florida along with Jonathan Schanzer in Washington D.C.  Jerry Gordon is a Senior Editor at the New English Review and its blog, The Iconoclast. Jerry welcome to Your Turn.

 

Jerry Gordon:  Good to be here Mike.

Jonathan Schanzer:  Thanks Mike.

“Watch the Islamists” recently to keep an eye on the area that we call Upper Egypt. It is actually Southern Egypt because the Nile flows South to North so geographically speaking they call it Upper Egypt. This is the area where the Egyptian Islamists,  the Al-Gamaa al-Islamiyya (“The Islamic Group”) and al-Jihad, the two organizations that went on to become the cornerstone of  Al Qaeda in the 1990’s, originated. This is the region where the man who assassinated Anwar Sadat in 1981, Egyptian Army Lieutenant Khalid Islambouli came from.  While Ayman al-Zawahiri came from Cairo, most of the Egyptian Al Qaeda cadres came from Upper Egypt. I have watched Al-Jazeera for the past eight days and there has been nothing coming out of Upper Egypt. It’s been absolutely silent. If we see protests coming out of that Southern area, that is a sign that the Islamists may be on the march. That would be a huge red flag. I have been stressing in my analysis that the Obama Administration needs to do something quickly. It’s been on the fence for the last eight days, not knowing what to do. Mubarak, of course is a US ally but this Administration also wants to be on the right side of history in support a democratic movement. As a result they have been paralyzed. They don’t know exactly what to do.  What I have written is that the longer these protests continue the better chance there will be that the Islamists begin to rise. They will catch wind of what’s happening up north and try to get in the act. The Islamists in Egypt have been repressed for decades. They are looking for their shot at Mubarak as well.

article in today’s Jerusalem Post that says a leading member of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Muhammad Ghannem told the Arabic Language Iranian News Network, al Alam on Monday that he would like to see the Egyptian people prepare for war against Israel. Mohammed Ghannem reportedly told al Alam that the Suez Canal should be closed immediately and that the flow of gas from Egypt to Israel should cease, “in order to bring about the downfall of the Mubarak regime.” He added that “the people should be prepared for war against Israel” saying the world should understand that the Egyptian people are prepared for anything to get rid of this regime. Israel has every right to be concerned, even absent such remarks.

www.tnr.com and the title of the article is “The Answer to Egypt’s Problem.” Assuming that such a scenario can be worked out, would that be enough to placate the protesters to stop the unrest right now and allow a peaceful transition from the government of Hosni Mubarak to whatever may come next?

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