by G. Murphy Donovan (July 2026)
Diplomacy is the art of saying ‘nice doggie’ until you can find a rock. —Will Rogers
Major complaints about the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (AKA The Islamabad Memorandum) signed in mid-June are thought to give a host of concessions to Iran with few benefits for Israel, America, or a Persian population now hostage to an angry, vindictive Shiite terror regime.
Chants of “Death To Israel” and “Death to America” still echo daily throughout urban Iran. Indeed, since the start of operation “Epic Fury,” 30,000 to 50,000 dissident Iranian protestors have been martyred by the Ayatollahs to underline Shiite Moslem resolve.
The purge of Persian patriots was, swift, bloody and ill advised. Help was never coming because apparently the Trump administration never intended to risk anything more than bravo sierra and selective air strikes.
In short, Tehran called America’s bluff and team Trump blinked.
Theoretically, the 14-point framework MOU aims to end active hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz (tolls pending), relieve Iranian oil exports, release frozen assets, pay a $300 billion reconstruction jackpot (funded by Arab “partners”), and create a temporary cease fire for 60 days of fanciful negotiations on nuclear issues.
In short, the submissive MOU kicks the can down the road on almost every possible motive or stated goal for launching the Epic Fury fight to begin with. The most obvious forfeit was freedom of the seas in the Hormuz Strait.
The MOU also includes a litany of weasel words on ceasing operations “on all fronts” (including Lebanon) and respecting sovereignty, yet lacks detailed, binding restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, or regional proxies like Hezbollah.
Key criticisms from Israelis and other sober analysts in the West include:
Front-loaded MOU concessions with vague or delayed Iranian commitments are prominent. The US immediately eases sanctions, lifts the blockade, and allows oil revenue (potentially billions monthly) plus access to frozen assets, while Iran offers only temporary strait reopening and loose pledges (e.g., “never have a nuclear weapon”) without immediate verifiable atomic curbs, missile limits, or proxy disarmament.
Many see the MOU as JCPOA Mock 2, lipstick on a pig, too many concessions and little or no reciprocity.
Core threats are insufficiently addressed; clear verification, ballistic missiles, or proxies (e.g., Hezbollah in Lebanon). The MOU sidelines or complicates Israeli future actions against threats. Worse still Israeli defensive operations are already being construed by the American side as potential violations.
Unfortunately, what is now inconvenient for team Trumps politics is still existential for Israel.
Islamist electoral gains in US urban elections are early symptoms of the growing seditious domestic threat to American Jews if not global democratic culture and institutions.
Like JCPOA, the MOU is also an economic windfall for Iran. The $300B fund pledge and full sanctions lift will fund military rebuilding and proxies.
Releasing assets without controls risks misuse.
Some call it a “Trump tax” via higher energy prices, inflation, and other direct costs.
US military and regional withdrawal signals retreat at best or defeat at worst. Vague commitments to reduce forces near Iran and the end of naval pressure are seen as a boost to Tehran’s regional power, a clear betrayal of “allies.”
Realistically, Israel is the only US ally left in the region.
A MOU (not a treaty), it’s a “gentleman’s agreement,” a half assed or time-buying ceasefire. Unfortunately, there are few gentlemen left in the Levant.
Iranian dissidents and American critics of Iran see the MOU as a defeat that betrays whatever is left of opposition movements inside Iran. Even US senators call the MOU a major blunder.
Opinion polls see the MOU card as a trump card for Iran.
Administration Pollyannas are framing the MOU as a pragmatic off-ramp to stabilize oil markets, avoid prolonged war costs, and create a pathway to something better than “endless” conflict.
Others see a bad deal as a temporary de-escalation amid mutual exhaustion. All parties fail to see that Israel is left hanging by a thread.
Iranian hardliners have criticized the “deal” as too conciliatory, whilst the Islamist regime warns of reciprocal actions if the US falters. Implementation tensions (e.g., Lebanon ceasefire disputes, nuclear inspections) have emerged even before the palaver began.
Overall, complaints reflect deep distrust of Iran, fears of repeating past diplomatic failures, and American bipartisan ambiguity over Trump’s approach. The 60-day window for a final deal is unlikely to be met as Tehran surely knows a stalemate, cease fire, or defeat does nothing for team Trump and Republican prospects in those impending mid-term elections.
Imperial Islam can always wait to get a better deal from the European or American left.
As IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi said to senior regime officials and the press recently:
“We brought President Trump to his knees. We got what we wanted. As usual, the foolish West believes it is getting something in return from us, which of course will never happen.”
Withal, America and the West still don’t seem to get that the real threat is not Shiite or Sunni, Arab or Persian. The real threat is Islam, a toxic imperial polity, not a religion. Recall also, the proxy alliance between Shiite Hezbollah and Sunni Hamas against Israel. More recently, note that Sunni gulf state largesse of $300 billion to rebuild and rearm Shia Iran.
The Arabs are going to make Iran great again!
When push comes to shove, Moslem intersect solidarity with each other trumps any agreements Sunni or Shiite may have with any nation in the West.
Indeed, when it comes to strategic threat assessment, team Trump, like many of its predecessors, doesn’t seem to have many analytical chops or candor cards.
After 1,400 years of experience, Europe and now America are still trying to put lipstick on Mohamed’s pig.
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G. Murphy Donovan writes about the politics of US Intelligence and American national security. Follow him on X.
Follow NER on Twitter @NERIconoclast
