By Conrad Black
The prime minister struck just the right note in his speech in New York: conciliatory and upbeat, and he strongly asserted that Canada would be an essential contributor to Trump’s campaign to “make America great again.”.
The evidence he cited for this was of varied plausibility. He said that 85 per cent of all electricity imported into the United States comes from Canada. That is true, but the United States only imports one per cent of its electricity, on grids that it shares with Canada and Mexico. Carney was more accurate in saying that 60 per cent of crude oil imported into the U.S. comes from Canada; this is a quarter of total American oil consumption, but the United States is a net exporter of oil of between one and two million barrels a day and much of what it imports from Canada it exports at great profit to itself. We should discontinue exports at this price but not imagine that we are in a position to inconvenience the Americans by our oil policy.
Carney was again on slippery ground asserting that Canada was the largest foreign supplier of steel to the U.S. This is again true, but it is only five per cent of annual American use of steel. More relevant was his statement that Canada was the largest foreign supplier of aluminum to the U.S., about 25 per cent of the U.S. total, which would not be so easily replaced. A stronger point still was the prime minister‘s assertion that Canada can be a reliable source of uranium, as it already provides as much as a third of American needs. This represents five per cent of American electricity production, serving over 15 million Americans.
Some of those who have commented on the prime minister’s New York speech have also implied that the United States is stumbling economically, and there has been particular emphasis on the well publicized problems of the Boeing Corporation. Inflation, though less than half the peak attained by the Biden administration, is a problem largely created by difficulties in the Persian Gulf, which Trump has repeatedly promised to resolve, either by unilateral military action or negotiation.
Those who imagine that the United States has become economically laborious should realize that real GDP per person in that country has just reached the highest ever point of US$70,502, adjusted for inflation, a 2.2 per cent annual gain. At the same time, real consumption per person is $48,816, a two per cent gain on the previous year: there is no shortage of consumer confidence and acquisitiveness. The incomparably productive American non-agricultural workforce, the wonder of the economic world, has reached an all-time high of 159 million people despite AI. Household debt service is barely 2/3 of the comparable figure 20 years ago and all of the major stock market indices are continually reaching all time highs.
All of this will create a tremendous opportunity for Canada, especially as, although there doubtless will be some amendment, the continental free trade agreement will almost certainly be renewed. As half of Canada‘s GDP is trade with the United States, the greatest single boost to our economic prospects is rising American prosperity.
It was also a good week for the prime minister in other respects: the agile and capable premier of Alberta, Danielle Smith, probably our ablest first minister, expressed her confidence that Carney will follow through on his promise to help build an oil pipeline to the Pacific Coast. An important liquid natural gas sale agreement has been made with Germany: both of these are 180 degree turns from the policies of the preceding (Liberal) government.
Steven Guilbeault, a former environment minister whose opinions on that subject can be safely described as lunacy, has retired from public life, another positive development. The country has been closely following the battle for the heart and mind of the Prime Minister between the former climate change extremist that he was, and the current seeker of Canadian prosperity and of the popularity of his own government. Guilbeault’s exit is a positive omen, as well as a good thing in itself.
This brings me to his remarks at Holy Blossom Synagogue in Toronto last week. These were the customary reassuring platitudes about how intolerable antisemitic smears and vandalism are. And on this point, I wish to apologize to the ministry of justice and to all readers for my oversight in last week’s column in which I asked that the authority of the Attorney General be necessary for police indictments under the Combating Hate Act. That change was effected in March. I must say that the justice ministry could have been more demonstrative in announcing it, but that is an explanation and not an excuse. I repeat my apology.
Carney spoke of commissions, inquiries, consultation, and other palliatives. Neither he nor anyone else has given us any comfort level that the police, governments or university administrators will henceforth respond adequately to mass demonstrations espousing racial hate and violence; any more than native extremists will be discouraged from describing the great majority of Canadians as “genociders, colonialists, and settlers” as if these roles were synonymous. We have no assurance that protesters will not return to blocking trains for weeks without the authorities doing anything about it, or that our judges will not continue to find rights in the constitution which do not exist, such as bicycle lanes, injection sites, and drug-dealing near playgrounds. If there were a new demonstration of truckers, would the Emergencies Act be unjustly invoked again and would our present prime minister write, as he did about the truckers several years ago, that they were trying to overthrow the government? It is impossible to be optimistic that anyone will ever be prosecuted for burning down numerous churches across the country over false allegations about the disposal of the corpses of residential school children.
The prime minister spoke eloquently at Holy Blossom, but the time has come to enforce the rights of the majority, not in suppression of less numerous groups, but as an end to the compulsive profession of the supposedly gross failings of this fundamentally good country. The Prime Minister had a good week and all Canada is the better for it. May they continue.
First published in the National Post
